Obama, Minus 2
by: Mike Proto | June 21
According to Rasmussen Reports, Barack Obama, aka CEO of Government Motors, has seen his approval index chart into negative territory for the first time in his Presidency.
Obama’s numbers have been in steady decline from Day One. Now, his weak response regarding Iran, his desire to socialize health care, his runaway spending and the worsening economic situation appear to have driven his numbers into negative territory.
The question now is, how much further will his numbers fall? I anticipate his approvals will be down to 40 before long, meaning his support will be coming only from his base.
“The question now is, how much further will his numbers fall?”
Very much further. By 2012, the incompetent Indonesian will be as popular as Dhimmi Carter was in 1980 (he was more popular in 1977 than Obama is now).
As I have correctly written numerous times here and elsewhere, Obama WILL be beatable in 2012.
If any Republican still doesn’t believe – like Mr Baehr and Mr Moran – that Obama cannot be beaten by any Republican in 2012 – here is an indication that he can be.
Every day, more Americans are realizing that the Obama Administration is one of the worst governments America has ever had, for many reasons. Most of those Americans who still positively rate the current government will learn what a failure of an administration it is in a timely manner.
Obama still has an aggregate 53% positive rating – but Jimmy Carter was even more popular in 1977 than Obama is now. Barely 4 years later, the beloved Jimmy Carter’s Administration lay in ruins, replaced by the most conservative US government since at least the Eisenhower Administration.
There seem to be several good candidates who could become the de facto leaders of the GOP and retake the White House in 2012: Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mark Sanford, etc. Each of them has his/her own merits and demerits, and each of them could, perhaps, lead the GOP and recapture the Presidency. The battle for that role should begin as early as possible, so that the Party will have a leader, an inspirator, a direction-giver, as soon as possible. The 2012 election will be a remarkable opportunity for the GOP not only to retake the White House and the Congress, but also to reveal who the Democrats really are. The GOP only needs to believe that victory is possible – and to implement the advice I gave it.
Ironically, the only threat to the GOP’s victory prospect is not Obama, but the GOP itself. It could nominate a liberal like McCain and could adopt liberal policies – and given its bumbling performance so far, it’s likely that it will.
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:50 amA word of caution is necessary, though. Neither Republicans nor the Democrats (who will unanimously nominate Obama) should believe the hype about Iowa . Iowa caucuses are very unreliable indicators of who the nominees of the 2 big parties will be – let alone who will win the general election. In 1972, Ed Muskie beat George McGovern in Iowa. In 1976, the eventual nominee of the Dem party (who later won the general election), Carter, was second in IA. In 1980, George Bush beat Reagan in IA. In 1988, George Bush and Michael Dukakis, the eventual nominees of their parties, were both third in their parties’ caucuses. In 1992, Tom Harkin, a Senator from IA, won the IA caucus (surprise, surprise!). In 2008, Huckabee beat McCain. Presidential candidates might just as well ignore IA caucuses.
The NH primary is a more reliable, although not foolproof, predictor of who will win the nomination. Only one Republican won the GOP nomination (and the general election) after losing the NH primary – George W. Bush. Clinton and Obama were losers of the Dem party’s NH primaries but both won their party’s nomination and the general elections of 1992 and 2008.
The most reliable predictor is the SC primary. Since it was first organized for both parties in 1980 it has always been a reliable indicator. No candidate has ever won his party’s nomination – let alone the general election – without first winning the SC primary. Rudy Giuliani hoped that he could ignore the first primary in the South, but he was wrong.
So in late January 2012, there should be 3-4 frontrunners for the GOP nomination and, at that time, I will write an article evaluating these 3-4 candidates on the 5 most important political issues.
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:55 pmZbigniew:
As utterly incompetent as Carter was, he actually had a slight lead in the polls going into the last week of the campaign. As stated on Wikipedia,
“The most important event of the entire 1980 presidential campaign was the second presidential debate, which was held one week to the day before the election (October 28). Over the course of two hours, the entire race changed drastically, and what was considered an extremely tight race with the President slightly ahead became a comfortable Republican victory for Reagan. Nothing of that magnitude has happened since in any televised confrontations.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_presidential_election#The_debates
It was in that debate that Reagan uttered the memoranble phrase “There you go again,” and asked the rhetorical question “Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?” A close race was thereby turned into a Reagan rout.
I say this as caution that even as Obama’s incompetence manifests, it will take a monumental effort to topple him in 2012.
June 22nd, 2009 at 9:26 pm